Photo : ISW/BBC
13 September 2022, Tuesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #305
IN BRIEF
By Rishma Banerjee
ALBANIA
Albania makes progress on wind power production
On 12 September, Deutsche Welle reported on the status of Albania's wind power industry. Even though Albania is geographically rich with locations for onshore and offshore wind power generation, till date, no turbines and plants have been set up. However, steps are being taken, while a project to set up turbines had been initiated in 2008, faced roadblocks. In April 2022, the government has given Biopower Green Energy and Marseglia Group, an Albanian-Italian venture as an approval for onshore wind project. The plant is expected to produce 235 megawatts from 39 turbines, covering about one per cent of its electricity needs. (“The truth about Albania's non-existent wind power industry,” Deutsche Welle, 12 September 2022)
SERBIA
Thousands protest in Belgrade to ban EuroPride
On 11 September, thousands of religious and right-wing activists marched through Belgrade seeking a ban on EuroPride, which is scheduled to be held in Serbia. Homosexuality is legal in the state while same-sex marriages are banned and LGBTQ+ people face discrimination, harassment and antagonistic behavior. While the march was canceled by Aleksandar Vucic's government, the organizers of the event have planned to still go ahead. The head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Porfirije said: “They want to desecrate the sanctity of marriage and the family and impose an unnatural union as a substitute for marriage.” (Alice Taylor "Thousands march in Belgrade against EuroPride," Euractive, 12 September 2022)
REGIONAL
EU ready to negotiate with the UK over Northern Ireland Protocol clash
On 12 September, the EU's chief negotiator, Marcos Sefcovic, spoke to Financial Times, on the Northern Ireland Protocol. Sefcovic mentioned that the EU was ready to work in an open and constructive way with the UK. He said that customs checks for goods travelling across the Irish Sea could be reduced to only when there were reasonable grounds for suspicion. Earlier, Prime Minister Liz Truss had also elucidated her stance on the Protocol. Even though a negotiated solution was something she hoped for, she said that an acceptable solution would have to include all the policies in the government's Northern Ireland Protocol Bill. (“Maroš Šefčovič says physical checks across Irish Sea could be cut,” BBC, 12 September 2022)
Experts accuse the EU for not taking measure to maintain the marine protected areas
On 12 September, a group of 200 scientists and conservationists issued an analysis about the harmful effects of disruptive fishing in marine protected areas (MPAs). The analysis reported that bottom trawling, which is the most harmful and fuel-intensive fishing practice was done in 59 per cent of EU's MPAs, depleting vulnerable and endangered species. According to the report, EU's waters were observed to be in a "dismal" state and only one-third of the total fish population studied are in good condition. They recommended, first a transition to low-impact fisheries and the protection of 30 per cent of EU’s water as MPAs by 2030 as a key mandate of use biodiversity strategy. Second, of the 30 per cent, 10 per cent should be demarcated as strictly "no-take zone" in order to replenish depleted fisheries. (Karen KcVeigh, “EU slammed over failure to protect marine life from ‘destructive’ fishing,” The Guardian, 12 September 2022)
INTERNATIONAL
UAE rejects extradition of suspect in Danish tax fraud case
On 12 September, a court in the UAE rejected the extradition of hedge fund trader, Sanjay Shah to Denmark. Shah from the UK is the main suspect in a Danish dividend tax fraud case. Known as "Cum-Ex" trading, this scheme was used by Shah to submit applications to the Danish Treasury on behalf of investors and companies for dividend tax refunds in a way such that they made double tax reclaims. Danish authorities say that Shah was the mastermind behind the USD 1.7 billion tax scheme that ran for three years. Denmark’s Justice Minister Mattias Tesfaye said: “I understand that today’s decision in the extradition case is not final and that the prosecution in the United Arab Emirates has the opportunity to appeal the decision." Tesfaye mentioned that he would initiate contact with UAE's prosecution office. Shah was arrested in Dubai in June, and an extradition agreement had been signed between the two countries. If extradited, he faces up to 12 years in jail. (“Cum-Ex: Dubai court rejects extradition of British suspect in Danish fraud case,” Deutsche Welle, 12 September 2022)
UN Human Rights chief calls on EU to stop “backtracking” on climate goals
On 12 September, the UN’s acting human rights chief, Nada Al-Nashif delivered a speech in the Human Rights Council. In the speech, she called on EU member states to stop “backtracking” on their climate goals, despite the looming energy crisis. Due to the possibility of gas shortages in the winter, several EU member states have restarted coal-fired plants and other fossil fuel-based energy production. Al-Nashif pointed out that locking in more fossil fuels now would have adverse long-term consequences. Referring to the ongoing climate crisis, she said: “It is essential to accelerate the development of energy efficiency projects and renewables.” (“EU countries must avoid 'backtracking' on climate goals, UN says,” Euronews, 12 September)
War in Ukraine: Day 201
By Padmashree Anandhan and Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 12 September, Ukraine’s Minister of Finance, Serhiy Marchenko, gave an online speech at the International Monetary Conference 2022, which was held in Munich, Germany, on the topic “Ukraine’s recovery needs”. In his speech, Marchenko stated that Ukraine’s economy had quickly recovered from the COVID- 19 crisis before the invasion of Russia. He talked about the devastation caused by the war on the state, its economy and its people. Marchenko also discussed Ukraine’s immediate need for USD 105 billion to survive the winter, repair critical transportation, support the next cropping season, social conditions and demining. Marchenko added that Ukraine’s government relies on foreign investments to help them in their time of need.
On the same day, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with CNN that Ukraine will deny negotiation with Russia unless it withdraws its troop entirely from the country. He added that discussing diplomacy, lifting sanctions, reparation and payment from Russia’s side would be possible only after the war's end. The involvement of any international leaders or institutions will also be possible only after Russia fulfils the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories.
On 12 September, Ukraine forces reported on winning eight offensives out of the nine launched against Russia in Kharkiv region. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine had gained back 3000 square kilometers, which is close to 1,158 miles of territory. As per the report from the Ukraine military, Russia has tried to disconnect electricity and water supply to counter Ukraine’s offensive in Kharkiv city. On the Russia confirmed on the retreat from the areas of Izyum and Kupiansk which are considered the gateways to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in the Donbas. While Ukraine is observed to be advancing on the front in north-eastern part of Kharkiv, the possible challenges listed by BBC are, the increased risk of being captured in bulk in the front line by Russia and costly intervention in terms of equipment, ammunition and troops. Zelenskyy said: “From the beginning of September until today, our warriors have already liberated more than 6,000 square kilometers of the territory of Ukraine - in the east and south. The movement of our troops continues.”
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 12 September, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and various Ministers and Governors to discuss the state of Russia's economy. He also discussed the draft budget for 2023-2025. Putin mentioned that Russia was not in danger economically as the government had implemented various protective measures to ensure they did not go into recession. According to Putin, Russia was confident in handling external pressure. He also added that inflation dropped from 17.8 per cent in April to 14.1 per cent in September, calculated till 05 September. The government believes that inflation will drop to 12 per cent by the end of 2022.
On 12 September, Russia’s Defence Ministry reported on the attacks launched using Russian Aerospace Forces, 113th Territorial Defence Brigade and 93rd Mechanised brigade to neutralise the Ukraine forces near Kupyansk and Izyum. It also disclosed on launching high-precision attacks, operational tactical and army aviation on the military bases of Ukaine.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 12 September, the governments of France and Romania signed an agreement on allowing more grain exports from Ukraine through rivers, seas and roads to reach other parts of the continent and developing nations. The deal occurred after Putin threatened to limit grain export through the Black Sea because he claims that most grains that leave Ukraine do not reach starving countries but instead feed the EU States. The UK’s Ministry of Defence debunked Putin’s claims stating that the UN statistics show that 30 per cent of the grain arrived at low and middle-income countries.
Also on the same day, the Czech Republic’s President said that the country could not be a mediator between Russia and Ukraine as it is an “...interested party and a participating country” in the ongoing war. He also said that countries like China, Turkey and Israel should be better candidates for being a mediator between Russia and Ukraine to stop the war. The Czech Republic had been a strong ally of Ukraine. There were also mass anti-government protests demanding the Czech government take a neutral stance due to the rise in energy prices and inflation in the country. Prime Minister Petr Fiala ignored the protest stating that they were fanned by Russia.
Spain’s national gas grid operator released a data on how Spain’s natural gas suppliers had changes in the last year. The largest supplier to Spain being the US, where liquified natural gas has been provided to Spain through maritime tankers. Till now Spain has brought 97,000 gigawatt hours from the US, after which Algeria which was the second largest supplier with 40 per cent to Spain stopped upon crack in relations between Morocco and Algeria. At present only one pipeline is under operation to transport gas into Spain. The Ukraine war did not cut Spain from buying gas from Russia, which accounted for 23 per cent gas exports to Spain. To divert its gas shortage, Spain has increased its imports from Nigeria and alternatives such as coal, solar and nuclear energy to meet its energy demands.
On 12 September, Germany’s Defence Minister, Christine Lambrecht urged the government to increase its role in the Ukraine war as a global player, including providing military support. With Germany rethinking its defence strategy and Europe facing challenges due to the impact of war, she urged to increase the defence budget to two per cent of its GDP and the need to meet the NATO target post the EUR 100 billion funds. Lambrecht said: “The war in Ukraine has shown everyone, even us Germans who are used to peace, that states need armed forces as a last resort — that is, whenever an enemy is determined to use invasion, destruction, murder and forced displacement.”
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 12 September, International Monetary Fund (IMF) discussed measures to be taken to keep the soaring food prices in check with its executive board members. The measure allows IMF to help countries impacted by the war in Ukraine. A formal vote for the fund is expected to occur before the IMF's annual meeting in October. The fund would allow countries to borrow an additional 50 per cent of their IMF quota, increasing their access limit. IMF is also working closely with Ukraine to provide any necessary help. In March, IMF approved USD 1.4 billion in an emergency fund for Ukraine under the RFI instrument to help Ukraine meet its urgent demands and needs. The war affected the global trade, production and consumption of goods that, gave rise to record high prices.
References
Merlyn Thomas, “Ukraine war: Russians 'outnumbered 8-1' in counter-attack,” BBC, 12 September 2022
Elsa Maishman, “Ukraine war: Kharkiv blackouts caused by targeted Russian attacks – Zelensky,” BBC, 12 September 2022
“We still need to strengthen our cooperation with partners to overcome Russian terror – address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 12 September 2022
“Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine,” Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
Anadolu Agency, “Spain’s gas imports from US, Russia rise amid tensions with Algeria,” Daily Sabah, 12 September 2022
“Germany must accept leading military role, says defense minister,” Deutsche Welle, 12 September 2022
“Serhii Marchenko at IMC2022: Financial policy and economic stability in recent years helped to cope with the first consequences of the war,” mof.gov.ua, 12 September 2022
“Zelensky: Negotiations with Russia are impossible until complete de-occupation of our territories,” Ukrinform, 12 September 2022
“France-Romania deal to export more grain from Ukraine to be signed Monday,” Politico, 11 September 2022
“Czech president explains why Prague can’t mediate between Moscow and Kiev,” Azerbaycan24, 12 September 2022
“IMF eyes expanded access to emergency aid for food shocks,” Daily Sabah, 12 September 2022